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The Minimum
September 25th, 2008 at 5:17pm · 2 Comments
The eMini moved higher today, just as was indicated on the 60 minute chart shown on yesterday’s update. This move is the minimum to expect, but can we expect more? I’m skeptical. The eMini came within about 5 points of its upper channel. However, the tick Cycle-Trap is flattening out and the modified DMX is breaking down on the 60 minute time frame. My second chart tonight is the 6.5 hour Select Put/Call ratio. “Select” refers to my own blend of the raw intra-day CBOE numbers. This ratio is bearish, reinforcing the weakening clues seen in the 60 minute chart. The bottom channel on the 60 minute is now at 1160, which would be the first stop on a move down from here.
Tags: S&P 500
2 responses so far ↓
1 hbcapital // Sep 26, 2008 at 8:05 am
From your award winning paper on crash cycles a few years ago, what is this year’s date for the crash cycle?
2 chris // Sep 26, 2008 at 10:21 am
The September new moon is Sep 29 3:12 AM ET and the October new moon is Oct 28 6:14 PM. The time of maximum panic in each month would be about 48 hours before the new moon. The October new moon is likely the more dangerous event, but given the clear evidence of panic in the air currently, I think it’s very possible that some of that panic sentiment peaks tomorrow.
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