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Christopher Carolan on Financial Markets & Lunar Cycles

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Watch Rates

September 15th, 2008 at 10:40pm · 3 Comments

The 30-yr bond showed late strentgth today. The bond had been near the top of its channel and had registered a pair of RSI divergences within the week. I think any clear reversal in bonds will mark a temporary low in stocks. For stock traders, keep an eye on the 30-year future.

click chart to enlarge

The euro and yen go their separate ways. Here and there I see references to the dollar rally. My forex charts show two very different dollar rallies. The first weekly chart here, which shows the dollar rally against the yen clearly marks that rally as over. On the other hand, the weekly chart of the euro’s decline against the dollar is a different picture. While that euro decline is extended and possibly due for a rally. There are none of the signs of a reversal that appear in the yen chart. This observation meshes with my comments this morning on oil and gold.  This summer; gold, euro, the yen and oil have all declined somewhat in unison. Now, we’re seeing signs that those moves are over in the yen and gold, but not in the euro and oil.

Production note: – I’ve lightened the background on the tradestation charts I make. I think they might be easier to view now. Are they better or worse?  Please share your opinion. The euro chart below is shown in both light and dark versions.

click chart to enlarge

click chart to enlarge

click chart to enlarge

Tags: Bonds · Crude Oil · Euro · Yen

3 responses so far ↓

  • 1 deuxsous // Sep 15, 2008 at 11:03 pm

    Gray lite looks better here.

    Tonight the long bond (US, ZB) futures are just above the 2003 high which is a “natural” (Gann) sell point.* If it doesn’t sell here someone is pretty sure we are going to have a very deep world wide recession or worse.

    *The CSI Data Perpetual® 3 month forward futures contract was 122 15/32 on June 16,2003, and December 2008 futures (approximately 3 months forward) have been as high as 122 28.5/32 tonight, and are still above the 2003 high right now.

  • 2 clausberlin // Sep 16, 2008 at 2:13 am

    I prefer the pale version, thank you.

  • 3 synergy // Sep 16, 2008 at 10:36 am

    the darker version is better for me

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