From the blog comments…
drmark states…
I have the dark days bottom on 10-26, in the morning (+/- 12 hours). That is on a Sunday, so I would guess the panic low would go into the previous Friday’s close on 10-24. Any thoughts anyone??
Yes, that is the correct calculation.
tobect asks…
Got Spiral Calendar book and reading it now. I browse to the end and see some predictions of the future
But I don’t see anything about 2007-2008 predictions.
Was it a miss in retrospective?
My long-term forecasts have evolved in the 16 years since the Spiral Calendar text was written. The primary addition to the theory has been to investigate the long-wave and propose my own ideas about how those waves are driven, which led to specific conclusions about what would happen in the long-term. My Calendar Research Reports Llong-Term Forecast issues in the early years of this decade laid out the new theory and it’s implications for the markets. The chart below captures the essence of that view and it’s bulls-eye, big picture outlook.
click chart to enlarge
It’s interesting to note how I characterized that then-upcoming top as having a parallel to 1937 when I wrote that back in 2004. Today’s financial news headlines that this year is the worst for U.S. stocks since 1937!
AlexK asks…
What if … the indicators remain at extreme levels without producing any reasonable rebound for a bit longer? What if that rebound only comes once we touch 8k or even 7k on the Dow? Historical patterns do not seem to support this scenario, but then there is not much precedent to what is happening now. Methinks too many people have been on the lookout for a tradeable rebound – including myself, with predictable effect on my trading account.
The “Dark Days” calculation for the extent of a lunar inspired panic effect targets the weekend of October 26 as the point when the panic sentiment will evaporate from world markets. Now the idea that there could be two more weeks of sharp declines ahead seems tough to comprehend, as the current vertical nature of the decline would bring prices close to zero by then. And yet, I think we have to stick with the research and say that any and every attempt to restore confidence will fail until after October 26. Selling may run its course before then but the goblins of fear are not scheduled to leave the neighborhood anytime soon. I agree with Alex, this is not a time to look for a bounce, tradeable or not. One might certainly come, but it’s really best to simply spectate and not speculate.
tobject asks….
Q: on page 46 you say it is 11 days difference between old and new calendar.
not sure about England but in Russia
we have 12 days difference – we still celebrate Old New Year which is on 13th of January
So u sure it is 11 days instead of 12?
The difference between the old Julian and Gregorian calendars is increasing over time. I believe it was 11 days at the time of the Russian revolution. I don’t have the research I did at the time nearby to check though.
7 responses so far ↓
1 clausberlin // Oct 10, 2008 at 9:52 am
I, too, have been thinking about the still long stretch until October 26 and what it might mean. Maybe they close the markets for some days to get us closer to this date.
2 tobject // Oct 10, 2008 at 11:12 am
Do you include all old Calendar Research Reports with $35 donation?
I’d like to read any additions to the theory
3 tobject // Oct 10, 2008 at 2:06 pm
This October 7-27 is weekend
7-28 ends at 2:34pm on Monday 27th
Do you think panic can extend to new moon 7-29 on 28th?
4 Peter // Oct 13, 2008 at 12:10 am
Excuse my ignorance, but what exactly is “dark days”? How often do they occur, what happens, and is it all markets? thanks in advance
5 Jon Eeles // Oct 14, 2008 at 11:19 am
To add to AndyB’s observations I have F19 from 6/8/2003 (english date format) also targeting 28th October 2008
6 peterb // Oct 15, 2008 at 7:07 am
Chris,
Hi. I thought I read somewhere earlier in the year that this was not scheduled as a panic year – so the dark days don’t apply? Or is it old age affecting my memory?!
7 Peter // Oct 16, 2008 at 2:44 pm
Excuse my ignorance, but what exactly is “dark days”? How often do they occur, what happens, and is it all markets? thanks in advance
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