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Tired begets Tired
November 6th, 2008 at 10:30am · 11 Comments
The ‘tired’ 60 minute eMini chart generated a significant decline yesterday and this morning. That decline has been strong enough to punch through the lower channel on the 60 minute chart. So now, we must look to the lower channel on the 135 minute chart for support, currently 886 and rising. The lower channel on the daily is way down at 748, 75 points below the lows, that should not come into play here. The short-term outlook is therefore pretty straightforward, more downside until the 135 minute channel is reached, probably around 900. There’s no divergence of loss of momentum to suggest a bottom sooner.
Tags: S&P 500
11 responses so far ↓
1 deuxsous // Nov 6, 2008 at 3:15 pm
November 5 was one of this month’s tidal turn dates per the Robert Taylor methods mentioned or hinted at in his book, Paradigm. The last preceding one was October 28. The first table shows three of the six measures I use for each day plus the summary of all six in the right hand column. the left had column contains some investigational (by me and others) lunar events:
http://screencast.com/t/6mmWezpXU5m
The second table contains the other three of six measures used:
http://screencast.com/t/Y0oPGR60
Taylor has written that the dates he has had over the past decade are about 80% accurate. In the past 18 months I have been doing these, I would say closer to 70% on the exact date. Taylor also incorporates market data into his program so that he can produce date tables for many different asset classes including financials (bonds, notes), glabal stock indices, gold, and others. I just use the simple tide tables.
By the way, I am not associated with Taylor in any way except that I own his fine book. I do not subscribe to his services.
2 chris // Nov 6, 2008 at 10:44 pm
Thanks Tom. I just got Taylor’s book. I don’t have time for a novel right now. Is all the forecasting stuff in the appendices? Or is there info in the novel as well?
3 deuxsous // Nov 6, 2008 at 11:17 pm
Chris,
Page ~55-98 of Paradigm are the meat of it. Read that sometime just to get the feel for the concept. I have the Nobeltec program that the brother twins described ,but there are also some free programs that do almost the same things. The appendices are an apologia for the commercial subscription in my opinion.
Nobeltec’s Tides32 does it in spreadsheets which saves me a lot of time, and it has a search function.
The book itself reads well and outlines the basics. It’s not as good as Brown’s da Vinci but it’s pretty good and entertaining. That genre of fiction is fairly well played out, but with the current financial meltdown I wouldn’t be surprised to see Taylor’s book, ghost written I feel, get to the screen and tube.
4 deacon31 // Nov 7, 2008 at 9:10 am
VIX up +30% in 2 sessions implies market can’t close lower than yesterday after 3 sessions…can find fibs around 900 SPX, i like the the 839.8-1167 range that provided a 50% number of 1003, and .887 fib at 877
5 humble1 // Nov 9, 2008 at 5:32 am
just as you said, d31: well done. i will look for more of your comments/posts.
regards,
H1
6 spotturn // Nov 9, 2008 at 3:32 pm
Tom,
your two screenshots posted on Nov 6. contain exactly the same data…
7 deacon31 // Nov 10, 2008 at 11:52 am
thanks H1, i seem to recall you from late 1990′s posting to Chris, were you at avid as well? i notice you are posting alot at young’s site recently…the VIX in the old days it was fade the market when vix moved 10% away from 10DMA, but nowadays vix is moving 10% in one session for the fade, it went down over 10% on election day, and that worked for a big short, but first day vix +14% last weds. (the fade didn’t work), as VIX went up +16% thurs. to get over the +30% in two sessions, which probably led to friday stocks up and today’s gap up.
this is pre-op-ex week, and i always prefer a downswoop beginning by weds. to end the week, which sets up the cheap calls for an op-ex week blastoff..the hedge fund redemptions still in play this week, probably why we saw the gap fill today in NDX SPX and in crude oil…
spotturn– if you press the button too hard an entry can post twice, or maybe it didn’t show up right away due to slow internet and he pressed it again thinking it didn’t take
8 spotturn // Nov 10, 2008 at 1:21 pm
Tom,
sorry, obviously I wasn’t clear with my statement. So I’ll try again:
http://screencast.com/t/6mmWezpXU5m and
http://screencast.com/t/Y0oPGR60 contain identical data.
Currently I reimplement the Taylor stuff with open source software and get almost the same dates/tides as you (difference in minima/maxima +-3 minutes, tides identical). Interesting stuff!
9 humble1 // Nov 10, 2008 at 2:18 pm
d31:
yes to all.
regards and good luck and thanks for the VIx comments.
10 spotturn // Nov 11, 2008 at 11:38 am
Tom,
sorry: Obviously I wasn’t precise with my comment. I’ll try again:
Your screenshots http://screencast.com/t/6mmWezpXU5m and http://screencast.com/t/Y0oPGR60 contain exactly the same data.
I find the Taylor-stuff very interesting. So I implemented my version with open-source-software and got to almost the same times (+-3 minutes) and exact the same tides as on your screenshot.
The nice thing about self-implementation is, that you have to decide all implementation details, which out-of-the-box tools do for you.
E.g. to what day does a tide belong to: Low-tide-time, high-tide-time or its mid-point?
IMHO a system should be result in comparable results independent of this decision to be robust.
11 chris // Dec 28, 2008 at 8:34 pm
Tom – I have the tide program now. What are the 6 pieces of data you’re looking at? Your sheets only have three. I can’t always see where Taylor gets his dates.
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