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Gold
January 14th, 2009 at 10:59am · 2 Comments
Gold is taking a hit today. Here’s how things look right now. The lower channel on the daily channel is at 801. There’s a sell net-line at 821. Gold would re-enter the channel as I’ve drawn it (subjectively) on the weekly chart at 791. The solunar model turns up tomorrow. The bullish case needs gold to find support on that daily channel and from the solunar model and get back above that net line by Friday’s close. Otherwise, a weekly net-line sell is a definitively bearish development. We’ll see if a low can develop in the next two days. My investigations into the tides and gold has not yielded results worth sharing at this point.
Tags: Gold · Solunar Model
2 responses so far ↓
1 AC // Jan 15, 2009 at 5:45 am
Hi Chris
3 questions / comments
- From reviewing the solunar charts when they are “hot”, they can get the shape and extent of big trend moves down quite well. I do think the date aspect is a big less on the button. Often the turn lags/leads about a week. Even on the chart above, the model calls all of (1) late summer rally (2) Oct Nov fall (3) Dec rally and (4) Jan fall right. However, if for instance a trader waited for the actual model low in late Nov, they’d have given back 1/2 their profits. The same is true for all the other turns. Does it not make more sence to think for the Jan 15 low and other turn points “expect a decent one month rally to start at Jan 15 +/- a week and to end Feb 10 +/- a week”. It’s less precise but more likely to be accurate.
- Some year’s back you drew attention to gold peaks / lows co-inciding with full or new moons (can’t remember exactly). Would putting them on the solunar add any value or are they already in the the model – I guess so ?
- Have you stopped running the spiral dates … I would have thought with the highly emotional nature of markets there might be good chances of big reversals on the multi-market cluster dates
2 AC // Jan 15, 2009 at 5:55 am
ps I think I’ve probably lost more money trading analogs than I’ve made over the years. That said, I looked back at the old post on bonds/gold. Bonds also consolidated back to their breakout level – perhaps not as fiercely – before the bond moon shot began
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