Let’s discuss the nuts and bolts of the eMini. The contract is well below the lower channel on the 135 minute chart. That channel is up at 820 on the futures. The daily lower channel on the is at 808, right where the futures are now. This is pretty much a do or die level for the bulls. I’m showing the weekly chart, as I mentioned its lower channel last week. But those channels are diving steeply lower. That channel is now at 679! What the weekly chart shows is how the market had overshot the channels at the November lows and then spent the last few months waiting for the channels to catch up. The message of the weekly chart is that the market once again has room to move lower.
The solutide model moves from short to long on tomorrow’s close. This model is scary in its recent effectiveness and yet equally scary in the inevitable blow-up that lies at some point in the future. I’d consider it more for entertainment purposes only at this time. The February 4 tidal buy point might be a better spot to pick a bottom.
click chart to enlarge
click chart to enlarge
click chart to enlarge
3 responses so far ↓
1 Jon Eeles // Jan 21, 2009 at 8:14 am
Chris, my understanding of the tide principle is that 4th February being a low in the range of high tides makes it a possible market top and so a sell date. The next highs in the range of high tides comming on the 25th of January and the 9th of February these marking possible market lows and so buying opportunities. Am I missing something here?
2 chris // Jan 21, 2009 at 10:44 am
I need to re-check the calculations – it looks like i reversed the polarity on them from this point forward. Also, I am not using the low range of the high tides, but the smallest (highest) low tides as the sell points – but again, my application of them needs revision. Today is NOT a swing to long on the solutide model.
3 Jon Eeles // Jan 21, 2009 at 11:14 am
Thanks Chris
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