Here’s some more of the 2009 gold solunar model – showing the model through the first half of the year. We are at the strongest reading on the model for the first half of the year this weeked. The model reaches higher levels in September. The model shouldn’t be translated as a strict map of price. It is limited by its 0 to 100 scale. I’d expect a bullish bias to prices, ergo a rally into the third week of May could easily carry higher than current levels.
A question in the comment section lately asked why I don’t post more on gold, as the eMini is old news. I think short-term trading of gold and other markets is more difficult due to the lack of more data outside of just price, such as the volume and tick information we have for the eMini.
To me, gold seems to be a must-have long-term holding given the inevitable, worthless fate of all paper money. Hopefully, the model is helpful in timing ones additions to a portfolio. But as I’ve stated so often, I fully expect gold to have periods where it doesn’t track the model at all.
click chart to enlarge
3 responses so far ↓
1 BearOfNH // Feb 12, 2009 at 9:52 pm
In this case the solunar model nailed the low date, 15-Jan, much to my profit. Easily worth another donation, Chris!
As we approach a clear downtrend in the solunar model, I speculate that it is unlikely that we’ll see a further rise in physical gold. We could see a decline or maybe mostly sideways movement.
If this turns out to be the case, wouldn’t one possible trade be to sell March calls slightly in the money, covered by a profitable position? As long as gold doesn’t go up, a covered option position should help hold value if not gain outright vs. say an equivalent LEAP option. Then if gold makes a low in the 3/19-4/1 timeframe you could add to your underlying and sell more covered calls in the late May timeframe. Lather, rinse, profit.
I think the only way this loses is if gold moves up nontrivially against the prevailing solunar tide. While that’s always possible, it doesn’t seem to be the way to bet. It would be nice (nudge, nudge) to have a longer-term historic gold solunar chart to see how often gold moved contrary to a well-defined solunar trend.
2 deuxsous // Feb 12, 2009 at 10:07 pm
A propos of nothing….
I hadn’t daytraded in several years, but I have recently been daytrading gold etf’s: GDX and GLD. They generally trade multi-million shares daily on mostly a one pip spread. Almost by accident or instinct I have traded them just by looking at side by side charts of es, nearby gold futures, ABX, and the funds themselves, since they both have a bit of all of those elements.
I haven’t been using indicators at all, but I have the tide cycle in mind. It’s rather “seat of the pants” trading but it has been working well. I expect it’s something I should only do when I feel perfectly healthy and happy, but it has been fun and profitable lately.
Your gold work fits into that quite well.
3 mdlifelab // Feb 14, 2009 at 11:42 am
Hi Chris,
I’ve been following your DOW Solunar Model for some time now. I had a bad feeling this week and decided to temporarily disregard it (to my advantage!). Anyway I was wondering if you were planning on posting the latest version anytime soon. Keep up the good work!
Mike D
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