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Slim Follow Up
February 3rd, 2009 at 10:50am · 5 Comments
I described yesterday’s bullish signal as “slim”, and that’s an accurate description of the rally it’s produced. Well, it’s not so much a rally as just a halt in the decline. Tomorrow is a tidal change date that may roll prices over to the down side once again. A reasonable scenario here is that this rally makes one more attempt to gain some upside, carrying prices into the net-line resistance at 837.50 on the 135 minute chart tomorrow. At that point, the 60 minute may be tired and be ready to roll over once again. That’s my current idea for a ‘road map’ and I reserve the right to change my mind.
Tags: General Market Commentary · S&P 500 · Tides
5 responses so far ↓
1 molecool // Feb 3, 2009 at 12:33 pm
“Well, it’s not so much a rally as just a halt in the decline.”
Agreed – a.k.a consolidation. Although I had hopes to see 850 I just don’t see any real momentum developing at this point (yet). I think we’re ‘parked’ at this point but I also suspect once a direction crystallizes we’ll see participation return.
What does your moon calendar project for the next two weeks? Any way it correlates with one of my two scenarios I’m pimping?
2 phaesed // Feb 3, 2009 at 4:05 pm
Thanks for the update on the Tidal sell.
3 phaesed // Feb 3, 2009 at 5:05 pm
Also isn’t it interesting that the tidal sell comes in the three days leading up to the Jobs number as well as the vote on the stimulus, then follows with a buy signal the weekend after the jobs number and most likely with the resolution of the stimulus? I love how technical indicators work with mass psychology
4 wiggly // Feb 4, 2009 at 12:49 pm
S&P Market stats ..behind us are 4 consecutive down weeks. In this bear market there have been 4 previous
back to back down weeks but no 5th consecutive down week. Argues against much down play here and supports choppy.
5 alexk // Feb 5, 2009 at 6:44 am
I’d tend to agree with wiggly. Also, there seem to be too many people waiting for a decline here. And Goldman has just recommended buying puts a couple of days ago, cf http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aotLF3OO7sDQ&refer=home – I’d consider this a contrary indicator. No doubt though that psychologically this is a difficult time to be long, but the risk/reward ratio looks good: 100 points downside on the Dow, many more on the upside…
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