An interesting comment was left on the board by BearofNH who wrote in part…
Wasn’t this move up a one-day-wonder predicted by the tidal data? I don’t quite understand how there can be a red arrow (i.e., top) only one day after a green arrow (i.e., bottom), but that’s how I read the solutide chart.
The tidal tables are subject to interpretation, but I agree with Bear’s take on this. I’m reproducing a screen shot of the tide tables I’m using. On the table, the left column shows the highest high tides in green, which should mark the market lows, and the red column shows the highest low tides, which should be the sell points. I know Tom Drake (who comnents as ‘deuxsous’ here) posted his thoughts that the tides indicated a low on March 4 via his interpretation. He’s been working with the tidal table much longer than I and he has generously shared some of his methods for applying them in various comments on the blog.
I suspect the March 12-13 tide will mark the low that makes a difference at the end of next week, and there are some other reasons to focus on that point that we can discuss early next week. For now, it’s another failure for the bulls.
click chart to enlarge
click chart to enlarge
16 responses so far ↓
1 Gold@3440 // Mar 5, 2009 at 1:24 pm
Your date (13th March) tallies with two financial astrologers and Rob McHugh’s phi date for a low. Interesting. For the Dow, I have a projected low of either 6440 or 6210 before the leg up, suggesting 250-500 points left on the downside. Do you have any specific levels in mind for the low?
Looking further out, I have an eventual Dow low of between 3300-3500. The low will happen from April-2010 onwards. The latest it can happen is early 2011. Parity with Gold @$3440. Do you have a target date for any eventual long term low?
2 SteveR // Mar 5, 2009 at 1:30 pm
Chris what about tides combined with the spring equinox???? Any link there? Thanks
3 Gold@3440 // Mar 5, 2009 at 3:24 pm
Venus retrograde March 6th through April 17th – I believe this is the window in which the rally will take place. Mid-April is also Martin Armstrong’s Pi date for a major cycle turn. It should be down unless the cycle inverts.
4 chris // Mar 5, 2009 at 3:47 pm
Planets have NOTHING to do with stock price movements. Last time I checked, neither Martin Armstrong, nor WD Gann have compiled the quantity and quality of precise and accurate forecasts that my methods have achieved.
My target date for the long-term stock market low is contained in the June 2008 Special Report. I believe I first calculated and published it about eight years ago.
5 Gold@3440 // Mar 5, 2009 at 4:02 pm
I have your book, bought many years ago. Will check. I admire your work but will beg to disagree on influence of planets. Why bother to use tidal and solar influences in your postings if that’s the case. Are you saying there is a lunar and solar influence but not any of the planets? That would be a contradiction, no?
6 Gold@3440 // Mar 5, 2009 at 4:05 pm
By the way – Armstrong doesn’t use planets in his analysis – his dates are just linked to Pi – 3141 days – and derivatives thereof. I have a volume of work that contradicts your above statement on his accuracy – and at any rate, his analysis is linked to economic confidence and not any particular market.
7 chris // Mar 5, 2009 at 4:13 pm
“The gravitational force that the Sun exerts on the Earth is on the order of 10^23 Newtons. On the other hand the force from Jupiter is only about 10^18 Newtons. So the force from the Sun is about 100,000 times stronger than Jupiter.
…if we have a 6′ tide from the Sun, then the Jupiter contribution would be 6/100000 feet or about .7 milli-inches – small enough to ignore. ”
The above quote is not mine, but it accurately lays out the relative math of the planets’ influence vs the sun/moon dynamic.
8 Gold@3440 // Mar 5, 2009 at 4:59 pm
Galileo, Copernicus and Ptolemy all bright scientists yet clearly irrational, clearly..because they were all adherents of astrology. Gravity is not well understood. Just read the materials on the electric universe theory. I think you’re barking up the wrong tree with the gravity argument. EM is possibly the right tree.
9 AC // Mar 5, 2009 at 5:48 pm
The contrarian in me can’t help but smile … the Lex column in the UK Financial Times, the shrine of fundementalist thought, rolled out some historical charts today (1929-32, mid 70s etc) to do some very amateurish charting highlighting how markets could still tumble another 80% … they did so because fundemental techniques that showed the market was cheap during the decline, have failed so much … now the fundementalists are capitulating to what would normally be considered “hocus pocus”, funny that expert technicians are sensing a tradable low is close
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/2/f000dd4e-08a0-11de-b8b0-0000779fd2ac.html
10 john888 // Mar 5, 2009 at 8:51 pm
The gold solunar chart has been going well .Gold has at times been trading inverse to stocks . So A high in gold around the 12th March would fit well with a low in stocks in the same period .
11 deacon31 // Mar 5, 2009 at 9:01 pm
doesn’t look like armstrong’s 8.6 year cycle has been correct:
http://astrocycle.net/PEI_85.png
i listen to pesavento and did post here ahead of his 2/9 ‘turn’ that worked out great and is still working thus farrrrr.. larry’s window was 3/4-8 this time…he said yesterday that if SP doesn’t lift right out of there monday or tuesday in a huge way then the ‘turn didn’t work’
looks like SPX 1982 low of 101.44 to all time high, gives a .618 pullback at 664.76 —>
plethora of sites now twittering and blogspoting on the .618′s, they call them ‘ambush’
nice move on gold today, if the stock market stays down looks good long til equinox
12 LovesBeta // Mar 6, 2009 at 1:42 am
To add to deacon31 fib ratio level. I drew some fib levels as well, that might be interesting, but not sure if useful though. The VIX although was up today, it was peculiarly lower than the recent peaks. As if no one is worried; Not good for the bulls case; But we will see. As for the solunar, I also interpret it as this weekend, or tomorrow we might have a bottom for a couple of weeks of rally given the recent synchronicities, but that I am not sure either. Many times, the tendency for the market is to reverse on or just before the week of option expiry to kill as much options as possible, that also fits with what Chris is noting for March 12-13 bottom. Tomorrow and Monday should be interesting.
S&P fib ratio Chart:
http://i713.photobucket.com/albums/ww139/LovesBeta/SP-fib.jpg
13 Gold@3440 // Mar 6, 2009 at 4:54 am
deacon31, as I said, armstrong’s model is not specific to any market, it is an economic confidence model – he has always maintained that. I like many of the Astrocycle analysis but in this case it is not correctly used. However, examples of where Armstrong’s Pi cycle turns have worked: Feb07 (market became aware of housing issue, China tanked); Nov 02 (v close to major equity bottom; July98 (LTCM etc); Dec89 (Nikkei peak); Oct87 (crash); may81 (interest rates peak globally); April80 (start of final leg up for commodities – they were 42% higher 8 months later); Nov74 (exact peak of 1st Commodity bull-run); Sept71 (start of commodity super bull)… I can go on and on. Some of his hits are ‘to the day’ but it is important to remember that his model is based on general economic confidence, NOT a predictor of equity market turns.
14 hbcapital // Mar 6, 2009 at 7:08 am
See this inflation adjusted Dow chart here http://www.geocities.com/WallStreet/Exchange/9807/Charts/SP500/Outlook.htm for a long term target. 3500-4000 would be in the red circle. Page down to the October postings to see the chart.
15 deacon31 // Mar 6, 2009 at 11:06 am
jeff cooper does all the gann wheels, fans, etc:
has SPX 661 as ’7 cycles down from ath’
https://admin.minyanville.com/assets/FCK_Aug2007/File/Theale/60%20–%20S&P%202009%20final.gif
16 BearOfNH // Mar 6, 2009 at 12:36 pm
The boldface 3/12 tidal projection occurs in the middle of the night. Since apparently the tides are being forecast for Reedy Point, DE (NOAA ID 8551910) I don’t see how they can accurately measure gravity where the action is at the time, i.e., Asia.
In the book _Paradigm_ I recall the brothers were careful to look only for tidal extrema that occurred during market hours. Does that make the 3/12 extreme a total no-go? Alternatively do we back up to the 3/11 12:11 PM high tide that’s the next-closest but during market hours? I’m not sure what the answer is, but I suspect it’s not right to rely on East Coast tide tables when most of the trading is being done in Asia.
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