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Christopher Carolan on Financial Markets & Lunar Cycles

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More Lucky than Smart

March 23rd, 2009 at 1:56pm · 2 Comments

I’ve been aware for some time about deficiencies in the Solunar Model. Specifically, matching up the past historical years, where different holiday and weekend schedules created differences in the compared output. Well, I finally have built a calendar day solunar model as opposed to the old trading day solunar model. What I found in the process was that the old model had somewhat ‘left the rails’ the past month or so. And in fact, the numbers had been seriously flawed since early Feburary. What this means is that the models’ recent success at the March lows was purely a function of luck.

The process of rebuilding the model also afforded the opportunity to increase the lookback and incorporate a larger sample size of data used to construct it. The new model actually fits better than the old one over the emotional period of late 2008 and early 2009. The new version also differs going forward. One, it is currently bullish and two, it does not have the straight up into May scenario of the older version. I still need to marry the tidal turn points into the new version as well. That and showing more of the model going forward as well as providing labels for the turns will all happen as soon as this site converts to pay format, which should be soon. I need to rebuild the gold model as well, though I don’t believe it was as flawed as the Dow version in its recent results.

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Tags: Solunar Model

2 responses so far ↓

  • 1 BJG83 // Mar 23, 2009 at 9:35 pm

    Look forward to the updated solunar models. I definitely plan on subscribing to the new pay format. Thanks again for all your great work! Also, where will we find the details of the new subscription service and what it will include etc etc.? I’m assuming under the “subscribe” tab but just wanted to be certain

  • 2 Paul_E // Mar 24, 2009 at 9:20 am

    I’ll also be a subscriber if the price is right ($30 a month my suggestion). I had a sub to Calendar Research Reports and have the Special Report dated 15 Jan 2005 open on the desk in front of me. Page 6 called for a 2006 top. Here’s the italicized text of the original: “April 2006 is the time period to look for the second of the double tops that along with 2000 will comprise the end of the great bull market of the past twenty years.” Well … worth a sub because the double top call was right and the methodology is intriguing to say the least, but 18 months out is not close enough to trade by. The same issue called for a bottom in October 2010. Let’s see. Certainly Chris’s recent posts have been very accurate, and have indeed been close enough to trade by. Paul (Worthing, UK)

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