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Losing Altitude
April 10th, 2009 at 12:22pm · 3 Comments
The 5-day advancing volume on the NYSE shows a series of declining peaks since the end of February. The divergence with the rising price of the S&P 500 is notable and bearish
Tags: General Market Commentary · Market Internals · S&P 500
3 responses so far ↓
1 LovesBeta // Apr 10, 2009 at 7:13 pm
Yes, I was monitoring it as well. And that was one of my sources of bearishness. Don’t exactly know when it turns (Maybe Monday), but it sure is showing divergence.
http://stockcharts.com/charts/indices/mcsumnyse.html
2 BearOfNH // Apr 12, 2009 at 9:40 am
It looks like the adv volume chart peaked around the 1st of March, so you could have made a similar argument back then: advancing volume peaks rising, market declining, ergo an imminent turn. And we did get the turn but only after a few more days and about 80 S&P points.
So the tide trade, expecting a high on 4/17, could still be in play. But it’s definitely a time to keep stops tight on long positions.
3 rich // Apr 13, 2009 at 1:03 pm
This topping process may take most of the week, but I think that the S&P will most likely end the week down. Definitely a week to add to short positions on strength. We could yet see an rise to 870 and an intra-day spike to 890 before the falls take hold.
At the beginning of March the S&P fell to 700 & would have been a very good long bet there, as the intra-day trough was only 34 points lower.
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