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Nicked
April 16th, 2009 at 7:00pm · 12 Comments
The eMini came close enough to the top of the chanels on both 60 and 135 minute time frames. At this point, it’s just wait and see if a reversal can develop from this level. Tomorrow is a tidal sell date, and we’re at the end of the statistically strong tax time of year. Is that enough to turn things around? I’d rather wait for the evidence than guess.
Tags: General Market Commentary · S&P 500
12 responses so far ↓
1 LovesBeta // Apr 17, 2009 at 10:51 am
I am not sure to even trust the action for Monday and Tuesday as it may be a bear trap. But as you note, we’ll have to let this one play out.
2 Susan46 // Apr 17, 2009 at 11:13 am
On Gold. Chart is not looking so good. Immediate
support is at 875-845. If this breaks, down to 730,
where you last recommended a buy on a breakout.
Pls share current thoughts.Thanks.
3 Gold@3440 // Apr 17, 2009 at 12:09 pm
@Susan46, you need to keep an eye on the Dow/Gold ratio. The recent closing low was 7.05 and it has now risen back up to 9.36. I think it should rise further to between 9.5 and 10.5 before peaking and turning over. I expect the ratio to drop back to 1:1 at the low in 2011. As my name tag would suggest, I think that will be Dow and Gold both trading at 3440.
4 Gold@3440 // Apr 17, 2009 at 12:24 pm
I have a cycle turn date on May 18th with the two most likely low between 792 and 816. I am going to be patient and load up for the long haul if we get there, especially if equities have remained strong throughout this period.
5 phaesed // Apr 17, 2009 at 12:43 pm
Larry Williams has a video about his interest in gold at the moment.
http://www.ireallytrade.com/TVStation/LarryTV.html
6 rich // Apr 17, 2009 at 1:53 pm
Well this one is certainly a nailbiter.
If we close above 882 I’ll need to have a careful look at my charts as I think that the S&P may have broken out of the 60 min & daily rising wedges that have been building for the last three weeks.
That’s almost exactly at the 8260 level that Gold@3440 mentioned for the Dow.
We shall see.
7 nostalgia1983 // Apr 17, 2009 at 2:08 pm
@rich, i tend to think that the strange behavior of the SPX this week, a big part it comes from the fact that it’s option expiration week. Looking at a lot of technical charts, the rise on the index here is feeling a rubber band that is ready to snap back anytime to me. Bank earnings have been giving people a lot of hope during the past week as well. I think things will get more interesting once all the big banks are done annoucing earnings. I use Larry Williams’ LNL indicator and it’s now making a significant tripple divergence that implies market top here
8 rich // Apr 17, 2009 at 4:15 pm
@nostalgia1983, I completely agree. Now that options expiry is out of the way then the snap back can start. This rubber band is looking very stretched indeed now.
I loved the bank earnings this week. Goldman parking $1.4bn of losses in December & changing their accounting period to leave it an orphan month was my top bit of the week.
Very reminiscent of Q1 ’08 when all the banks, particularly Lehman & Merrill Lynch were booking mark to market profits on the declining value of the bonds they had issued because they could theoretically buy them back at less than face value.
9 nostalgia1983 // Apr 17, 2009 at 5:50 pm
@rich, one more significant concern is BAC earning that is coming out on monday. that might add some fuel to the market.
10 phaesed // Apr 17, 2009 at 7:45 pm
Don’t forget WFC on Tuesday, although that one discounted itself through the claims it made two weeks ago in a massive short squeeze. I think the thing to note is…. Only the banks have really been outperforming.
11 tobject // Apr 17, 2009 at 10:58 pm
With USD collapsing gold may have some legs
http://forkoholic.com/images/usdfo.jpg
http://forkoholic.spaces.live.com
12 jqybm // May 8, 2011 at 1:34 am
@nostalgia1983 excuse me,what is LNL indicator?
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