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Christopher Carolan on Financial Markets & Lunar Cycles

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That Volume Thingie

April 27th, 2009 at 11:34am · 13 Comments

My intra-day 5-minute volume oscilator is at new lows for the day while the eMini is 10 points above the RTH low. Expect the volume to be telling the true story.

click chart to enlarge

Tags: Day Trade · General Market Commentary · Market Internals · S&P 500

13 responses so far ↓

  • 1 Aronny // Apr 27, 2009 at 11:53 am

    Chris, any word about gold? It rally most of last week, and I wonder if it might be a good time to short.

  • 2 LovesBeta // Apr 27, 2009 at 3:11 pm

    Price action looked like a paint job today; Unless market was still digesting the buys. The bounce from the morning drop just did not have the umph. Did not even look like a short covery. Maybe there are no more shorts, but me :-) The base held though, but financials were weaker than the market. That could be the sign of the next direction, but will see.

  • 3 rich // Apr 27, 2009 at 5:32 pm

    @LovesBeta, I’m still short, so that makes two of us. I was watching the action in financials today. Interesting. Hopefully they will lead the way down tomorrow.

  • 4 LovesBeta // Apr 27, 2009 at 7:26 pm

    @Rich, MCO on NASDAQ (The stronger index), is about to go negative:

    http://stockcharts.com/charts/indices/McSumNASD.html

    However, I do not count out a possible last foray and short squeeze just as it happened in December – January as MCO was near the zero line. Although, we have sell on the tides, solunar seems to turn positive near here from the chart, If I understood it correctly? So I am not sure, but still holding :-)

  • 5 Berkeley Square // Apr 27, 2009 at 10:19 pm

    Wha’Happen to ?

    “The question was asked when the solutide model flips to long. As written, the model flips on Thursday, May 7. However, the next tidal buy date is Monday, April 27. ” (written April 23rd)

    Btw, looks like an ascending triangle on HOURLY RUT/IWM.

  • 6 rich // Apr 28, 2009 at 5:27 am

    Looks like we might get breakout today. If the price stays at this level then we will be out of the upward channel we have be in since last Tuesday.
    The best indicator for the spx over the last week has been the spx 60min full stoch 5,3,3. On that indicator though, we might only have downward pressure for the first three or four hours of trading today & then trend sideways or up for the next day or so.

  • 7 behindthepen // Apr 28, 2009 at 7:08 am

    does anyone have an explanation as to why the SPX and the EUR/JPY have delinked? EURJPY peaked at 135 on 4/6 and is already down to 125.

  • 8 Gold@3440 // Apr 28, 2009 at 8:32 am

    I think the EURJPY FX pair became a genuine leading indicator – theory being the REALISATION that Europe has a huge number of issues yet to be dealt with relative to Japan (or the rest of the world for that matter)…. likely rate cut, sovereign default possibility, lack of clarity on other non-standard tools to deal with credit implosion etc etc… Note that the EURJPY cross also led the equity market recovery, reversing fully in mid-Feb (the day that European Sovereign CDS peaked). In other words, there was maximum fear at that point and the pendulum had swung too far against Europe RELATIVE to the rest of the world. That’s my take.

  • 9 rich // Apr 28, 2009 at 9:58 am

    @LovesBeta, The spx 60min full stoch 5,3,3 indicator has turned up again, so I think we are spiking upwards again for the next few hours.

  • 10 LovesBeta // Apr 28, 2009 at 10:12 am

    @Berkeley Square, Thanks. @board, I saw a news that Treasury needs $361B for April-June.

    http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090427/ap_on_bi_go_ec_fi/us_treasury_borrowing/print

    Looked at the schedule. Looks like next week they are doing the auctions:

    http://www.treas.gov/offices/domestic-finance/debt-management/auctions/auctions.pdf

    We likely going to see weakness into that in equities, but that usually is only a day or two ahead, So for the rest of this week, We might just grind away sideways or up. BTW, that kinda fits the solunar for the next week.

  • 11 rich // Apr 28, 2009 at 1:20 pm

    @LovesBeta, grinding away is about right. I think the ticker may have got stuck.

  • 12 rich // Apr 28, 2009 at 2:03 pm

    Well, the way we’re going here, if the market closes a little up, then I might take a small position on a fall overnight & tomorrow morning.
    That’s as much of a pattern as I can see here really. The spx 60min full stoch 5,3,3 indicator will peak at closing by the look of it.

  • 13 rich // Apr 28, 2009 at 2:31 pm

    Oops, peaked early & now dropping like a stone. Missed it. Ah well. Cash may be best today anyway.

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