Comments on: Stuck

By: rich

rich — Fri, 29 May 2009 18:54:40 +0000

The bears are on a tight leash. Equities have stopped rising, but every time the bears sally down they are reeled right back in.

Most of my indicators tell me that the rally is finished, all bar the shouting, weekly spx stochs, $NYSI, $NYA50R, $SPXA50R. These are long term signals that take a while to turn around once they start trending up or down.

If the bulls aren’t done yet, then we should see a blowoff top that hits the resistance just under 950 on the SPX (Jan high, 200 day EMA) if it makes it through the resistance at 930 it has already bounced off twice.

If it does make it through 930, then the Dow will make a new high over the May 8 high. That new high is most unlikely to be confirmed by the Dow Transports so we will then have a clear Dow Theory Sell Signal, the first since the SPX hit about 780 in Feb on the way down. That will be the end of the rally IMO.

Or we might just go down from here but I don’t think we’re quite there yet.

By: Josh

Josh — Fri, 29 May 2009 15:07:30 +0000

@ Rich

YES.

By: alexk

alexk — Fri, 29 May 2009 14:12:31 +0000

@rich, it does feel as though something explosive is brewing, and the majority seems to expect a bearish resolution – so a strong move to the upside may be the actual outcome. I’d be interested to know how you arrive at your conclusion though…

By: rich

rich — Fri, 29 May 2009 14:04:40 +0000

I think we might be looking at a blowoff top in the next week. Solunar chart not incompatible with that.

By: Berkeley Square

Berkeley Square — Fri, 29 May 2009 13:50:23 +0000

i knew a trader who kept buying the highs of a trading range & selling the lows.

Eventually, he ended up signing his checks “U.R. Stuck”

By: Rrman

Rrman — Fri, 29 May 2009 01:32:26 +0000

Chris, the solar/lunar indicates an up move around the first of the month?

By: rich

rich — Thu, 28 May 2009 23:02:01 +0000

I’ll second that.