Comments on: Solunar & Tidal Update

By: Gold@3440

Gold@3440 — Sat, 25 Jul 2009 17:24:56 +0000

@Chrisss, I have concluded the crash scenario is no longer active although there is still room for a large correction starting when the crash phase would have taken place (i.e around Aug 4th). I agree a top is very close at hand – getting short next week.

By: Chrisss

Chrisss — Sat, 25 Jul 2009 10:08:56 +0000

btw Gold, what’s the latest on your possible crash scenario… postponed till Sept/Oct ?

By: Chrisss

Chrisss — Sat, 25 Jul 2009 10:07:36 +0000

Expanding flat is an ABC formation. Wave A (ABC move) Nov lows to Jan highs. Wave B (another ABC move) Jan high to Mar low; this one is key because it is clearly a 3 wave move, contrary to most EW counts I have seen. Finally, Wave C, which is a 5 wave impulsive move; within wave C, wave 1 ends nr end of Mar.

Credit for this count goes to Ryan at Wavespeak.com . I highly recommend his work.

I use many different charting techniques, although I admit EW is a favorite. What I like about the current set-up is that there are so many other factors suggesting a high is nigh.

I ‘m 100% short right now, so hope I’m right ! That said, I would be surprised if SPX added another 10 points at the open Monday (as if this hasn’t been enough of a bang to go off with!)

By: mdlifelab

mdlifelab — Fri, 24 Jul 2009 16:29:53 +0000

Chriss: Thank you for getting back so quickly. My take is that this is either a broadening pattern or a rising wedge (depending on whether you start at the march lows or mid-may). I am definitely bearish as well but am waiting until Aug 2 – 3 (Puetz, Taylor, alexk ). Anyway, thanks again and good luck!

By: Gold@3440

Gold@3440 — Fri, 24 Jul 2009 15:01:31 +0000

I was confused too. I think he’s a. using intraday charts b. counting wave 1 as the Nov low to Feb high (267.82 points) and then c. using the May 13th low (@1339.82) as the start of wave 5. If that’s the case. That takes you up towards 1608. That’s the only thing I can think of. Interesting but can’t say I’d agree with the labelling.

By: alexk

alexk — Fri, 24 Jul 2009 14:01:04 +0000

@Chrisss: I don’t see how you figure wave 5 = wave 1 at NDX 1610, can you please explain?

By: Chrisss

Chrisss — Fri, 24 Jul 2009 08:21:51 +0000

also, where was the volume behind this recent upsurge?! … I remain unconvinced !

By: Chrisss

Chrisss — Fri, 24 Jul 2009 08:20:10 +0000

P.S. Note that since May we are in an expanding / broardening formation. This pattern suggests uncertainty, as is rarely a positive setup.

By: Chrisss

Chrisss — Fri, 24 Jul 2009 08:15:20 +0000

Elliott wave, although (as far as I am aware) my favoured wave count is not the one currently favoured by the majority of Elioticians. Nevertheless, recently it has served me well, for example in predicting this recent rally.

Since the 2007 high, my favoured count suggests that we are currently coming to the end of a 4th wave expanding flat (that started end Nov 2008). The C wave of an expanding flat is a strong five wave move. What is particularly interesting is that within this move wave 5 often = wave 1 in length; on the NDX this would occur at 1610. Being that yesterday’s high was 1605 & that all waves can definitely now count complete we are at an interesting point to say the least! I suspect we start the final wave 5 down Very soon; this should at the very least lead to a retest of March lows (although I must admit I am personally much more bearish than that!)

By: mdlifelab

mdlifelab — Fri, 24 Jul 2009 01:16:22 +0000

Chriss you’re theory is very intriguing! When you speak of a 5th wave. What model are you talking about? Thanks in advance.