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Weekly Update

ChrisC — Sun, 15 May 2011 23:27:30 +0000

A look at the weekly charts.

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Potential

ChrisC — Wed, 09 Feb 2011 19:26:10 +0000

A potential signal in the eMini’s lurks.

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A close today below 1313.00 on the eMini will generate a net-line sell signal that implies a move to the lower Keltner channel now at 1295. Other divergences on the chart are already in place. If not triggered, this signal may trigger tomorrow on the 11:45 AM or 2:00 PM bars (EST).

It’s very interesting here to see stocks down on a day when the dollar is falling. Have we reached the tipping point where dollar weakness is no longer able to inflate stock prices, quid pro quo? That’s worth watching closely in the days ahead.

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That Volume Thingie

chris — Mon, 27 Apr 2009 16:34:43 +0000

My intra-day 5-minute volume oscilator is at new lows for the day while the eMini is 10 points above the RTH low. Expect the volume to be telling the true story.

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Who do you believe?

chris — Tue, 07 Apr 2009 15:12:01 +0000

The eMini has been trying to rally from its lows made in the opening half-hour while the volume oscillator just keeps going down. Odds are that the futures price will ultimately follow the oscillator.

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Another Channel Reached

chris — Fri, 30 Jan 2009 18:22:24 +0000

eMini prices reached the bottom of the 60 minute channel this morning. Expect a pause or a bounce from these levels. There’s no divergence on this time frame or higher, but the 27 minute chart (which I never show) is set up for a rally here. Perhaps they can rally half-a-day, but even that may be too optimistic.

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Support

chris — Thu, 08 Jan 2009 17:58:53 +0000

The eMini is finding a small amount of support just beneath the lower channel on the 60 minute chart. Both the modified DMX and Tick Cycle-Trap are diverging here. To me, the suggestion is a small rally and a pause in the decline. I don’t think much comes of this on the upside – but let’s watch what develops.

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Watching the Volume

chris — Wed, 07 Jan 2009 17:27:44 +0000

It looks has if the S&P rollover is for real here. Here’s my volume oscillator on the 5 minute eMini chart. Notice that during the 90 minute rally attempt in the late morning the oscillator just kept heading lower. That’s bearish.

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“..for my next trick.”

chris — Wed, 29 Oct 2008 16:48:32 +0000

Actually, there is no ‘next trick.’ The job here is to perform workmanlike technical analysis and navigate the still treacherous waters. Here’s the short-term picture on the ever-popular eMini contract. The mini paused this morning at the top of the 60 minute channel and is now ready to run to the top of the 135 minute channel at the 1000 level. I’m showing the daily chart today for the first time in a long time, as it’s reasonable to assume the eMini will attain the top of the daily channel in this run as well. That number is now 1115, but dropping at the steep rate of 15 handles per day. I’m thinking price and this channel may meet at the 1040-1046 area, where there is some prior established resistence.

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They Didn’t Get the Memo

chris — Tue, 28 Oct 2008 15:08:48 +0000

The U.S. stock market doesn’t seem to have gotten the memo that ‘Turnaround Tueday” was to have been a world wide reversal in stocks. The Asian markets led by Hong Kong reversed nicely as did Europe led by the DAX and that bizarre short-squeeze in Volkswagen shares. But the eMini futures seem only capable of significant rallies in the overnight hours, when presumably the sellers are sleeping. As a positive, every move down into the 835-825 area this month has been met with real buying. The market appears to be defining that price area as the low end of a new range.

I remain convinced that the climax in the herding of fear and panic behavior is past. But the necessary deleveraging of portfolios continues, and to the extent those are automatic computer-driven decisions, stocks can go down regardless of any improvements in investor’s mood. “Turnaround Tuesday” isn’t over yet. Let’s give it the full day to play out.

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Eerie Equilibrium

chris — Mon, 27 Oct 2008 16:08:41 +0000

The U.S. stock market is exhibiting an eerie equilibrium this morning. The eMini touched new lows at 825 last night but has recovered all of those losses. The modified DMX indicator on both the 60 and 135 minute time frames are moving horizontally, indicating that this market right now has no trend whatsoever.

If I’m right, the selling is over but stocks don’t yet realize the sellers have left the arena. Range trade selling has appeared this morning at the two attempts to cross 880. Once that number is successfully taken out, then 916-918 becomes important and then the top channel on the 60 minute at 955+ should be easy.

Get ready for the ride up!

click chart to enlarge