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Christopher Carolan on Financial Markets & Lunar Cycles

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Weekly Update

August 30th, 2015 at 5:54pm · No Comments

More volatility ahead, though it will likely dissipate somewhat in the short-term.

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→ No CommentsTags: Bonds · Crude Oil · Euro · General Market Commentary · Gold · Market Internals · S&P 500 · Silver · Solunar Model · Yen

The Spiral Calendar – In from the Wilderness

August 29th, 2015 at 4:37pm · 1 Comment

The previous blog post lays out the reasoning that The Spiral Calendar may again be a useful forecasting tool. The Central Banks grip on price appreciation appears (at least for now) broken. We don’t doubt they will try to reassert that grip.  The break seems to have begun near or on the May 19, all time high in the S&P 500.

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→ 1 CommentTags: General Market Commentary · S&P 500 · The Spiral Calendar

Stocks Awaken from “The Great Sedation.”

August 29th, 2015 at 10:38am · No Comments

Jim Grant on “The Great Sedation.”

 

There has been no appreciable volatility for four years.  Jim Grant brilliantly labels this period, The Great Sedation.  Cue the Ramones.

 

 

The Spiral Calendar links emotional market (and human) events through time. The Central Banks deployment of The Great Sedation has surpressed emotional expression in markets, and thus rendered the Spiral Calendar ineffective.  During the Great Sedation, I chose to minimize Spiral Calendar discussion here, as it was clearly of limited use. I did show, through iterations of “The Money Printing Pump” how the Central Banks were guiding markets higher with low volatility through their interventions.  Early this year, the correlation between these Central Bank balance sheets and market movements became extraordinarily high. Follow the May top in stocks, the correlation began to break down.

 

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On July 26, as I noticed the correlation between stocks and Central Banks was falling apart, I asked.
“Does this chart mean the Central Banks have lost control of the markets?”

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Now this week we have seen what happens when the Central Banks can no longer control the beast. Stocks are now nearly perfectly negatively correlated with Central Bank balance sheets in dollars.

The time has come to dust off the Spiral Calendar and bring it back as a primary forecasting tool. That will be this blogs next post, for subscribers only. You all are invited to join.

→ No CommentsTags: General Market Commentary · Money Printing Pump · S&P 500 · The Spiral Calendar

To the Brink and Back

August 27th, 2015 at 5:24pm · No Comments

Stocks are out of the woods, temporarily.

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Stocks were highly correlated with Central Bank balance sheets at the May highs. Now they are highly negatively correlated with same.

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Apparantly, Wall St. is counting on the Bank of Japan as savior.

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→ No CommentsTags: Bonds · Crude Oil · Euro · General Market Commentary · Gold · Market Internals · Money Printing Pump · Silver · Solunar Model · Yen

They Don’t Look Good

August 25th, 2015 at 7:23pm · No Comments

And that’s an understatement.

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“October Falls in August this Year” Chris Carolan Aug. 16

August 23rd, 2015 at 5:22pm · No Comments

The Solunar Model may not have pinpointed the timing of the turn, but it’s call for a steep, October-like decline in August this year set it apart from the other seasonal models on Wall. St.

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Short dollar yen and long gold are virtually the same trade, and have been for a while.

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→ No CommentsTags: Bonds · Crude Oil · Euro · General Market Commentary · Gold · Market Internals · Money Printing Pump · S&P 500 · Silver · Solunar Model · Yen

The Asian Panic

August 20th, 2015 at 6:03pm · 1 Comment

The Asian panic is spreading to North America and Europe. We underestimate the pressures from that region at our own risk.

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→ 1 CommentTags: Bonds · Crude Oil · Euro · General Market Commentary · Gold · Market Internals · Money Printing Pump · S&P 500 · Silver · Solunar Model · Yen

Too Early

August 18th, 2015 at 6:03pm · 1 Comment

It’s too early to assess the impact of the just-passed, seasonal stock low.

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→ 1 CommentTags: Bonds · Crude Oil · General Market Commentary · Gold · Market Internals · S&P 500 · Solunar Model · Yen