Next Week – Next Year

Year-end is both a boring time and an anticipatory time for markets. Most markets get relatively quiet. Yet for some, that quietness is just the prelude to new and interesting trends that break out in early January.  The question I'm stuck on is whether stocks have been held up by year end forces while the euro and gold have fallen, and will the new year/next week see stocks join those markets in their trend lower? 

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Analog on the Seasonal Fire

Here's a couple of interesting charts. First, is an analog comparing the NASDAQ from the 2000 top to the Japanese Nikkei from its 1989 top. This chart has been floating around for a while and is not my work. But it's interesting. I tend to think analogs break down those times when the driving forces behind the parallel aren't understood.  The other salient point here is that the analog seems more useful in finding coincident lows than market tops. Nonetheless, if the patter were to continue, stock prices would head higher into June 2010. That's not an idea I'm currently subscribing to.

click chart to enlarge

The second chart today for subscribers is a close-up of the solunar model for the next few months in U.S. stocks.

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