Cycles vs. The FED

and the war continues. Cycles push the market one way, via seasonal downward pressures, and the FED pushes markets the other, via the MoneyPump.

Who wins? Not traders it seems.


click chart to enlarge

Stock prices have closed the gap with the MoneyPump in the past few weeks. We can see how the pump has gone relatively quiet in recent weeks. I'm now lagging the pump by seven days on the chart, as that seems the best fit between renewed S&P rallies and pump surges as shown with the arrows.


click chart to enlarge


click chart to enlarge


click chart to enlarge

I've added the 1929 comparison chart to this analog set. It's just amazing how similar the patterns are in years where prices topped on or near a late summer new moon. We are now at the equivalent point to the Yom Kippur highs of both 1987 and 1929 (green arrows).  Do we crash now?

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