Market Internals – Page 36

That Summer Analog

We've written before about the tendency for markets to peak on summer new moons, and for markets to have autumn crashes. Both phenomenons occurred in 1929 and 1987. But 2012 saw a summer, new moon peak without a corresponding crash. Our observation today is that these years with summer, new moon peaks seem to follow similar paths following those peaks, with twin lows near the subsequent full and new moons. Here's a comparison of this year with last.

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Ride the Dragon

Here's a block of charts with a theme. Central bank money printing is the current cornerstone of market drivers I believe.

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The S&P 500 continues to "Ride the Dragon" following the Money Pump higher. The pump is the sum of the FED balance sheet and 25% of the ECB balance sheet converted to dollars.

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Stocks Lag the Pump

Stocks lag the money pump.

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The Expensive Dollar

Versus the euro, the dollar is expensive.

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Deterioration

A 5-day oscillator of the S&P advancing and declining issues shows the recent marked deterioration in the U.S. stock market.

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Lurching towards March

Stocks up and gold down - both grinding into early March Solunar Model time periods for respective tops and bottoms. But one can't look solely at cycles these days. Who is printing the money and how much is being printed are key intelligence factors in today's trends.

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