Category: Yen
Stall Before the Fall?
Stocks are on hold waiting for whatever the FED may bring tomorrow. Internals are weakening, and my bias is bearish.
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Who’s Driving?
Are the central banks regaining control of the runaway bus? An expanding Bank of Japan balance sheet in dollar terms does wonders for equity market health. And yet, various central banks tricks seem to come with an expiration date beyond which their effectiveness is sharply diminished.
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Bulls Pull One Out of the Fire
Such a dramatic day. The bears had a chance to score a decisive reversal and failed. The bulls bought themselves some time.
The Next Move
The bulls showed their vulnerability today. The falling dollar/rising yen looks to extract another round of pain from stockholders in coming weeks. Video update inside.
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Weekly Update
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This rally has seen some impressive stats, but the S&P breadth oscillator is not one of them.
Oil vs Yen
Oil and dollar yen are trying to pull stocks in different directions. Oil is winning that battle short-term, but this oil rally comes with a likely expiration date.
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On the Nature of Tops
There’s quite a bit of short-term upside momentum present. If a top forms now, it will need to be a spike-type reversal. Now my general observation is to expect spike lows and rounded tops in bull markets, and spike tops and rounded lows in bear markets.
A spike top now will benefit the bears as it helps confirm the nature of the larger trend.
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