ChrisC – Page 210 – Spiral Calendar

Monthly Recap

A look at May's madness.

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The euroyen S&P correlation is disengaged.

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Stocks ignored the seasonals in May, to put it lightly.

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The Gold Solunar Model is looking for two more months of declines.

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Disconnect

U.S. Stock prices are disconnecting from even the Central Bank easing indicators of late.

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Around the Merry-Go-Pump

Printing presses VS. Cycle. The FED printing presses have won recent battles. I'm not sure they'll win the war.

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The Verge

I continue to think U.S. stock prices are on the verge of a short, sharp, shock here.

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Weekly Update

Signals are aligned for lower stock prices now.

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Underway

The May swoon forecast by my Solunar Model is officially underway.

Continue reading Underway

Loaded VIX

The VIX is loaded to signal again.

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The Failing Japanese Printing Press

Our clients have been following the close correlation between inflating central bank balance sheets and asset prices. Here's a few charts with some interesting implications.

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For some time now, the S&P 500 has correlated closely with the EURJPY exchange rate. The two have danced hand in hand, although note that in the January stock correction, the EURJPY headed lower before stocks turned down.

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In turn, that EURJPY rate has a long-term fit with the ration of Japanese central bank assets divided by European central bank assets. This relationship makes sense. If the Japanese are printing more than the Europeans, their currency will fall relative to the Europeans.

The chart that brings it all together is below for subscribers.

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